Gareth Southgate has turned England into the masters of their own luck

England are in the final of the EUROs once more. Gareth Southgate’s team have almost failed upwards to get this far, and after a tournament of constant criticism, all of that could be forgotten in an instance if the means are justified by the end. With all eyes on the final, it’s worth taking a look at the man who has presided over this run.

It didn’t seem like they’d get this far. England ventured through the group stage as if an overgrown jungle, tripping and stumbling throughout, finding unexpected obstacles and having to wrestle with a struggle which should never have happened.

There was no need for it, either. It wasn’t even a particularly tough group: Serbia, a national team who always seem to perform as less than the sum of their parts, mixed with a tournament-shy Slovenia and a Denmark side entrenched in its own shadow made three years ago.

England topped it nonetheless, but they did not make it easy for themselves; a win, two draws and only two goals scored overall do not paint the picture of a table-topping team. But that’s what they were and, deservedly or otherwise, they made the round-of-16.

But what is a ‘deserved’ win? A win is a win, after all. There’s a certain school of thought which suggests that any team that wins deserves to. Football matches aren’t decided by who plays prettier football or passes the ball around better or even who makes the most chances. Football matches are decided by who scores the most goals.

Then again, England haven’t done that in half their matches. Grim draws in the group stage with Denmark and Slovenia would be joined by another stalemate with the Swiss in the quarterfinals – it was only an uncharacteristic penalty shootout win which sealed England’s progression after that.

All of that rather sums up England at EURO2024; they’ve limped past every challenge, never convincingly, but consistently enough to climb each step ever so slowly. Now they’ve reached the top of that proverbial staircase and are within touching distance of a first European Championship.

Sort of. Of course, England have won the EUROs, but in very different circumstances. The Lionesses showed it’s possible back in 2022 and with it added another trophy to the collective cabinet.

But it’s been a sticking point for the men. An unclimbable mountain. Many have tried, many have failed. The men’s teams have made it their historical motif to do poorly. After elimination to Iceland back in 2016 and on perhaps the nation’s darkest day, England had still only ever made four semifinals at any tournament: the World Cups of 1966 and 1990 and the EUROs of 1968 and 1996. ’68 didn’t even really count; there were only four teams, and England were eliminated immediately.

Then Gareth Southgate happened. Four tournaments later, England have made the final four three times and are now in their second final.

He’s an interesting figure to say the least, Southgate. On the one hand, he’s England’s most successful manager in three generations. On the other, he’s presided over a golden generation which plays football coloured more bronze or copper.

The paradox is that England play badly, but do well. That’s sort of the trade off they’ve had to live with; England, for every bad performance and every mediocre result, have an almost unnatural habit of getting the job done.

Cast your mind back to 2018. Iceland and every tournament disaster were still fresh in the memory of the entire country. But Gareth Southgate’s side made it to the semifinals and even won a penalty shootout along the way. That had never happened before.

The cruel irony is that penalties are what cost England their first European Championship three years later. But it was a penalty shoutout in the final. England were in the final of a competition for the first time in 55 years.

The World Cup came a little over a year later and it was less successful. The quarterfinals, England’s habitual tournament home, was their undoing again against the eventual runners-up in France.

Now we’re here, looking towards an England final at the EUROs again. The reason for bringing up those tournaments is because they’re all eerily similar. In 2021, 2022 and 2024, England won the first group game, drew the second in dire circumstances but made it through anyway.

The narrative for each was the same: England can’t keep playing like this if they want to actually win anything. Southgate is sucking the potential out of some truly world-class footballers and it simply isn’t good enough.

But that’s just the narrative, because time after time, England do keep playing like this and England do get results along the way. Now, after another tournament of Southgate criticism and shoddy performances, England are in the final again.

Is it coincidence? Is it luck? Well, partially: every single team which wins a tournament has to be lucky somewhere. Spain won the EUROs in 2012, but it could’ve all ended in the semifinals had Portugal been better at penalties. Portugal themselves won in 2016 after three group stage draws and their own penalty shootout win over Poland – André-Pierre Gignac even hit the post in the final. If he’d scored, Éder would never have had his moment of glory and France would’ve won the lot.

Tournaments are about fine margins and there are three things that create those: luck, mistakes and moments of genius. England have benefited from all three, from winning a contentious penalty against the Netherlands, to Slovakia leaving Kane unmarked in the round-of-16, all the way to that moment of genius from Jude Bellingham in the same game. England don’t necessarily play the most attractive football, but they are the definitive tournament team.

That all comes from Gareth Southgate. He’s cultivated a team which does just enough every single time. There are valid criticisms of him as a manager. England have an outrageously good team and there is no reason they shouldn’t be bossing games and playing ‘good’ football. The flip side is that winning nullifies all of that.

England won’t care if the performance against Spain is scrappy and typical of their tournament if the outcome is a win. If England win the EUROs on Sunday, Southgate is a tournament-winning genius. If they lose, then questions can be asked.

But one thing is certain: like him or not, Gareth Southgate has created a team which knows how to navigate tournaments. They might stumble through games, but they stumble with their feet in the right places and ultimately, they don’t stop moving. They just keep ploughing on forwards.

So, enjoy it. Enjoy Gareth Southgate, enjoy this chance to win a trophy. Many England fans lived and died without seeing a single appearance in the final. Now, England have made the final of the EUROs three times in four years. The Lionesses have won it and now if the Three Lions win on Sunday, whether they ‘deserve’ it or not, there’s no looking past a key figure who needs to take a big chunk of the credit. It’s Gareth Southgate.